RED CARPET MONITOR: Critical Condition – Oscar by Critics

redcarpetmonitorThis year, we’re going to try our own prognostication – something we’ve never done before. And we’re going to go about it in a more unusual way – by analyzing the critical consensus around the world. and to check their accuracy on a scale with Academy voters. I’m no Nate Silver, but I thought it would be fun.

We’re keeping a spreadsheet of the various critics groups around the US and Canada – those from various cities –  and also figuring into this calculation the Critics’ Choice winners and the National Board of Review winners. We’ll be tracking twelve categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Documentary, Foreign Language, Animated, Cinematography, Score, and Song, the categories that most interest the average film goer. We’ll assign our attempt at odds based on the number of wins each category has. We’ll update this list two or three times a week until all the critics groups have announced their winners, with the next update planned for Wednesday. And most importantly…remember, this is all in fun – we don’t claim to be accurate, we’re just trying something new here…:-)

So here we go – let’s have at it! In our initial predictions, we have thirteen groups in the calculations. Only critics group winners thus far will be figured into the calculations and will be listed.

La La Land – Even
Moonlight –  Even
Manchester By The Sea – 7:1

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight – 2:1
Damian Chazelle, La La Land – 3:1
Maren Ade, Toni Erdmann –  8:1

Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea – 3:2
Adam Driver, Paterson –  8:1
Denzel Washington, Fences –  13:1

Isabelle Huppert, Elle – 3:2
Natalie Portman, Jackie – 2:1
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women – 6:1
Amy Adams, Arrival – 6:1
Sandra Huller, Toni Erdmann – 6:1

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight – 12:10 (this is almost what you call a “sure thing”)
Jeff Bridges, Hell Or High Water – 70:1

Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea – 3:2
Viola Davis, Fences – 3:2
Lily Gladstone, Certain Woman  – 4:1
Naomie harris, Moonlight – 12:1

O.J. Made in America : 7:5
13th – 5-2
I Am Not Your Negro – 7:1
Cameraperson 30:1

Kubo And The Two Strings – 4:1
Zootopia – 7:1
The Red Turtle – 18:1
Your Name – 25:1
Tower – 25:1

The Handmaiden – 7:1
Toni Erdmann – 15:1
Elle – NIL (missed Oscar Shortlist)

La La Land – 4:1
Moonlight – 4:1
The Handmaiden: 14:1
The Neon Demon – 20:1

Jackie – 3:1
La La Land – 5:1
The Neon Demon – 40:1

“City of Stars” , La La Land – 2:1
“Drive It Like You Stole It” , Sing Street – 2:1