• Delicious

redcarpetmonitorThis year, we’re going to try our own prognostication – something we’ve never done before. And we’re going to go about it in a more unusual way – by analyzing the critical consensus around the world. and to check their accuracy on a scale with Academy voters. I’m no Nate Silver, but I thought it would be fun.

We’re keeping a spreadsheet of the various critics groups around the US and Canada – those from various cities –  and also figuring into this calculation the Critics’ Choice winners and the National Board of Review winners. We’ll be tracking twelve categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Documentary, Foreign Language, Animated, Cinematography, Score, and Song, the categories that most interest the average film goer. We’ll assign our attempt at odds based on the number of wins each category has. We’ll update this list two or three times a week until all the critics groups have announced their winners, with the next update planned for Wednesday. And most importantly…remember, this is all in fun – we don’t claim to be accurate, we’re just trying something new here…:-)

So here we go – let’s have at it! In our initial predictions, we have thirteen groups in the calculations. Only critics group winners thus far will be figured into the calculations and will be listed.

BEST PICTURE
La La Land – Even
Moonlight –  Even
Manchester By The Sea – 7:1

BEST DIRECTOR
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight – 2:1
Damian Chazelle, La La Land – 3:1
Maren Ade, Toni Erdmann –  8:1

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea – 3:2
Adam Driver, Paterson –  8:1
Denzel Washington, Fences –  13:1

BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle – 3:2
Natalie Portman, Jackie – 2:1
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women – 6:1
Amy Adams, Arrival – 6:1
Sandra Huller, Toni Erdmann – 6:1

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight – 12:10 (this is almost what you call a “sure thing”)
Jeff Bridges, Hell Or High Water – 70:1

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea – 3:2
Viola Davis, Fences – 3:2
Lily Gladstone, Certain Woman  – 4:1
Naomie harris, Moonlight – 12:1

DOCUMENTARY
O.J. Made in America : 7:5
13th – 5-2
I Am Not Your Negro – 7:1
Cameraperson 30:1

ANIMATED
Kubo And The Two Strings – 4:1
Zootopia – 7:1
The Red Turtle – 18:1
Your Name – 25:1
Tower – 25:1

FOREIGN LANGUAGE
The Handmaiden – 7:1
Toni Erdmann – 15:1
Elle – NIL (missed Oscar Shortlist)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
La La Land – 4:1
Moonlight – 4:1
The Handmaiden: 14:1
The Neon Demon – 20:1

SCORE
Jackie – 3:1
La La Land – 5:1
The Neon Demon – 40:1

SONG
“City of Stars” , La La Land – 2:1
“Drive It Like You Stole It” , Sing Street – 2:1

 

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